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That said, there's a guy in New York secretly having one of the best seasons in the NBA so far. Tyson Chandler - the backbone of the New York Knicks, made a huge difference for the defending champion Dallas Mavericks last ...
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Barely a third of the way through the year, the Knicks already are already riding a hype-fueled roller-coaster. After an 8-15 start, they?re now riding a 5-game winning streak and Jeremy Lin is looking like a potential star. Yet despite outscoring their opponents, the team is still 1 game below .500 and would make the playoffs as only the 8th seed if they started today.
As detailed already by Chasing23 writers Daniel Douglas and Tony Maglio, the Knicks have a whole lot of problems. The biggest ones are that their high-priced forwards, Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire, are falling pitifully short of expectations. And while their backcourt oozes potential, it remains to be seen whether it can sustain its recent success over the long haul or, perhaps more to the point, when Anthony and Stoudemire come back into the lineup.
That said, there?s a guy in New York secretly having one of the best seasons in the NBA so far. Tyson Chandler - the backbone of the New York Knicks, made a huge difference for the defending champion Dallas Mavericks last year, and he?s making a huge difference for the Knicks this year. His numbers might look pedestrian at first glance-11.9 points and 9.8 rebounds per game, but his deceptively high level of play has kept the Knicks alive to date.
Lets start with the offense, because we generally don?t think of Chandler as a great offensive player. And while he?s not a guy who?s going to regularly put up huge point totals, he?s a guy who maximizes what he does with the ball and almost never hurts you. So far this season, Chandler is taking scoring efficiency to a level never seen before in the NBA by shooting 70.4% from the field.
Chandler isn?t the most naturally talented offensive player in the league. Most of his shots are dunks, putbacks, and short jumpers. He?s had success with the pick and roll as well. He?s also done a good job of getting to the line this year, after developing into a pretty good free throw shooter.
Of course, when you play with Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire, there aren?t a lot of shots to go around. Chandler?s 5.6 field goal attempts per game are 7th on the team, but he?s fourth in scoring. His 70.4 field goal percentage, if he can maintain it, would be the second best single season in NBA history, behind Wilt Chamberlain?s 1972-1973 season. Perhaps more impressive, Chandler currently boasts a .739 true shooting percentage, which would crush Artis Gilmore?s old NBA record of .702. And it?s not a fluke-last year, Chandler?s TS% of .697 was the third highest of all time.
Looking at this another way, Chandler has taken 6% of his team?s field goal attempts, but has 12% of their points. Add in his ridiculously low turnover rate (1.4 per game in 33.7 MPG), and you?ve got a guy who maximizes his opportunities on offense better than anyone else in the league. He currently leads the league in offensive rating and is third in offensive win shares, which is shocking for a guy who frequently appears to be an afterthought in the Knicks? offense (he is 305th out of 337 NBA players in usage percentage).
The Knick?s much maligned defense, on the other hand, has been shockingly competent this season. Considering where they have been recently, that?s a huge compliment. They give up 94.4 PPG , ranking them 14th among all NBA teams at this juncture, but a far cry from their pitiful 105.7 PPG given up last year, and a shockingly low number for a D?Antoni team. And while their pace has slowed down, from 99.1 possessions per game to 93.8 this year, it?s not enough to account for such a vast improvement.
It?s always dangerous to attribute such a change to one player, but in this case, it?s hard to find another cause for the Knick?s defensive improvement. Chandler?s already shown the ability to solidify a defense, as he did last year for the Mavs. Furthermore, the only other real upgrade they had, defensively, was assistant coach Mike Woodson. Carmelo and Amare couldn?t be less interested in trying to play D, and the perimeter defense has been spotty and inconsistent. They cut their best perimeter defender, Chauncey Billups, to make room for Chandler. Yet with Chandler in the middle, the defense has been consistently respectable.
Statistically Chandler?s having a fine season on defense as well, averaging over a block and a steal per game and hovering just outside the top 10 in defensive win shares as well. In Win Shares overall, he?s third, and in WS/48, he trails only Lebron James. And his PER, which notoriously overvalues volume scoring, is still a very respectable 20.4 despite his ridiculously low usage rate. Simply put, Tyson gets it done.
Even if his torrid shooting rate is unsustainable, Chandler will probably find his way into the record books this year. More importantly, despite never having played in an All-Star game, Chandler?s proving that he?s truly become one of the NBA?s elite players by quietly putting together one of the most uniquely impactful seasons in recent NBA memory. Now if only his highly paid teammates would start pulling their weight, these Knicks might really have something.
Chandler?s having a nice season, sure. He?s athletic, can dunk, and is an above average rebounder, but there?s a reason why he doesn?t shoot much. And before you say melo or amare, his FGA/game have been low with every team he?s been with.
Chandler is a low-usage player who gives a team excellent returns with his offensive efficiency, and it?s adds alot of value. Not alot of players can give you the true shooting percentage, ability to get to the line (Chandler shoots free throws per 36 minutes at near Carmelo Anthony levels!) and offensive rebounding that Chandler does, low-usage player or not. He?s also in the league top 10 in statistical +/-, which ? along with win shares ? is adjusted for opponent and your teammates on the court. Overall, he?s one of THE best players in the league. Period.
The object at the end of the day is to put the ball into the basket and keep your opponent from doing the same. If you can do those things, it doesn?t matter HOW you?re scoring. Production is more important than flash and SportsCenter highlights.
I?m not arguing any claim so far. I just asking for some clarification. The terms ?elite? and ?superstar? get thrown away very loosely these days, so I want to know what he means by ?elite.
Nobody is saying Chandler isn?t a good player. To me, elite is top 5-10 players in the league, at most. For someone like Chandler who has never made an AS team(and won?t this year unless as an injury replacement), and never made any all-nba teams, except all-nba defense 2nd team last year, that doesn?t exactly scream out as an elite player to me. Each AS team could have as many as 8 centers on it, including F/C players. So, the fact that the fans have never voted him in, and then the coaches have never picked him as a reserve, shouldn?t be taken lightly. He certainly could have a case to make the team this year, but so could everyone else who did make it, as well as several other additional players.
If he is an elite player(top 5-10 at the very least in the league-my definition), then he should be a lock to make the team, and should be a lock to make all-nba teams, since the only other true dominant center in the league is Dwight. Maybe during Ewing?s day, when I think he finished 5th in MVP voting one year, but 3 of the 4 guys ahead of him were centers, so Ewing didn?t make an all-nba team that year, you could say, yea, sure, that?s not exactly fair, but not today in an era where there?s a severe lacking of top-notch centers.
?So, the fact that the fans have never voted him in, and then the coaches have never picked him as a reserve, shouldn?t be taken lightly.?
Are you basing this off of fan picks? Most fans aren?t objective when it comes to picking the best players in the game. And coaches aren?t better at it either.
There is hard data of what Chandler is doing on the court, and it points to him being one of the best players in the league. He and Dwight are easily ahead of the pack at the center position and he should?ve been voted in the All-Star game (if it?s about picking the best players, that is).
So what AS starters shouldn?t be AS this year? There could be some disagreement with whether they should be starters or reserves, but rarely does any starter not deserve to be an AS by performance. I actually recently looked back at the past 11 AS game starters, including this year. I only found 2 picks to be egregious: Iverson in 09 and 10. There could be a case for Melo this year, but he?s still a top nba player, at least borderline AS, so I don?t have much problem with him making it.
The AS starters are for the fans. With that being said, almost always are the very top players picked, and they rarely pick a starter who doesn?t deserve to be in the AS game by performance. The coaches pick the rest of the AS.
No matter what system you have, there?s always going to be some disagreement over the last 2-3 guys on each team. But, who better to pick the AS than the people who are actually involved in the game? Don?t act like you know more about the game then nba coaches do. What?s this objectivity you speak of? Hard data? Really?
So, year in year out, the fans and coaches never have thought of Chandler as a top 10 player in his respective conf., basically equivalent to a top 20 player in the league. He has never made even 1 all-nba 3rd team. He has never had even 1 5th place MVP vote.
I?m not these awards are all necessarily completely accurate, but for the most part they are, but there?s always exceptions. The fact is the only award chandler has is 2nd all-defense last year. He?s been in the league for 11 years. He?s been in his prime for several years now. He?s made for 4 different teams in the past 4 years. He?s almost a journeyman nba player. Now, these are actually facts, since you brought that up. Combine all of this together, and the only conclusion you can make is that chandler is not even close to being an elite player at any stage of his career. That?s why I ask what does he mean by elite? If he means top 30-40 player, then fine, I?ll go with that. Top 5? You?re kidding, right? You actually think that Chandler is a top 5 player in the nba?
I mean, it?s great that he shoots 4-6/game on average, but not really sure how that makes him an elite player. He gets good looks mainly from his teammates creating and setting him up for easy shots. Or when a teammate draws a double team and misses, making it much easier for him to get offensive rebounds. Often the best play is to shoot against a double team, especially in the paint, if there?s no passing lane. Often the 2nd defender that comes over is a big, which would be chandler?s man often, and then chandler has free reign for off. rebounds.
Chandler is a good rebounder. Great? Hardly. A 7-1 center who plays 34mpg and averages less than 10 boards is hardly a great rebounder. Other skills? Not much. He?s a pretty good defender, but doesn?t really stand out from many other centers, and certainly much worse than Howard.
Posted by boyer | February 15, 2012, 7:18 pm ?But, who better to pick the AS than the people who are actually involved in the game??
Fans AND coaches are prone to biases when it comes to picking All-Stars, especially with players with tenure or past reputation (Dirk is a great example of this, although he?s been playing better recently). And yes you use data; it?s record of what a player is doing on the court (notably the data that goes beyond per game stats and give you more information about player impact). It tells us that Chandler is a player who 1) doesn?t create his own shot, but 2) makes the most of his opportunities more than any other player (how many ?role players? shoot at a 75% true shooting clip?), 3) rebounds well above the average player, accounting for minutes played and other players on the court, and 4) who is among the best defenders at his position in defensive value and point differential. He?s one of the key reasons why the Knicks are a top 10 defense this season.
If that?s not an All-Star, then I don?t know who is. While Jeremy Lin has stepped in Melo?s place and played well, Chandler?s been the Knicks steady performer. Simply looking at points per game isn?t going to cut it.
Posted by The Realist #2 | February 15, 2012, 8:24 pm Boyer, you are correct that Chandler?s been a journeyman for most of his career, but what?s really interesting is how much he?s improved his production each of the past two years. In terms of his on-court production so far this year, I would say Chandler?s probably been one of the top 10 players in the NBA.
Saying he?s a worse defender and rebounder than Howard, the best rebounder/defender in the game, is hardly an insult-he?s still the second best defensive center in the league and one of the top 10-15 rebounders. When you compare their offensive numbers, Howard?s scoring an extra 8 points per game, but he?s taking an extra 8 field goals per game to do it-he?s significantly worse from the field than Chandler, and his free throw shooting is hideous. Even the worst NBA players make over a point per field goal attempt, and the league average is around 1.2-hence Chandler?s amazing offensive efficiency is probably more valuable to his team than the extra points Howard provides at a much less optimal rate (his TS% is .186 lower than Chandler?s). Add in the extra turnover and a half for Dwight, and it seems pretty clear to me that Chandler has a huge edge over Dwight on offense this year. Dwight?s still better overall, but not by as large a margin as many would think.
The All-Star game starting lineup is a popularity contest, nothing more. Carmelo?s been rancid this year and has really hurt the Knicks-he?s ruined their offensive flow by hogging the ball in isolation sets, shot less than 40% from the floor, and played his usual disinterested defense. When he got hurt his team was 9-15 and his coach was on the chopping block-they haven?t lost since and are back at .500. There?s absolutely no way Melo deserves to be an All-Star-I?m not even convinced he deserves to be starting for his own team.
Posted by Lochpster | February 16, 2012, 1:16 am Lochpster, you seriously think chandler is a better offensive player than Dwight? Seriously, do you watch the games or just look at a stat sheet? I can look at an advanced stat sheet, and it would tell me that Kobe was the 4th best player when the lakers won their 2 recent titles? What?s the pt. of that then? Chandler has no offensive game. I love his efficiency as well, but that hardly makes him a great offensive player. Now, if he could go 13-20 every game, then he would be. How many times does chandler get the ball on the block and asked to create his or someone?s else?s shot? How many times does he getting doubled? Almost never. There?s an obvious reason for that.
Chandler is 14th in rpg, 24th in rp48. Both good, but both not great, and hardly makes him a lock for the AS team. He?s a really good defender, as are many other centers. He?s probably at least a top 5 defender in the league for centers.
He?s a top 10 player according to whom? You? You say the AS game is a popularity contest. In a way, but only for the starters. Like I said before, the AS starters for the past 11 years have been spot on by the fans. Except for a rare occurrence, the starters are always worthy of being in the AS game. The only one in question this year is Melo, and he?s still a borderline AS. Do you really deny this?
As for the reserves, they?re better good, too. Realist likes to talk about bias, but fails to realize that bias is involved in everything in the nba. For some reason he thinks there?s no bias in advanced stats and that these stats are evidence of proof of what is exactly going on. Unfortunately, I don?t see this problem going away any time soon. Like I said, Chandler is a case to be a reserve, but so do lots of other players.
The fact is he?s not an elite player, and he never has been, which is why he?s only been recognized as a 2nd team all-defense once, last year. Seriously ask yourself when, if ever, has an ?elite? player not played in the AS game? And go back and look at the AS lists sometime. I?d say the fans and coaches have done pretty well getting the best players in the history of the game into the AS game.
Don?t give me the ?just watch the games? excuse ? guess what? We are. However ? and you can ask any psycholgist about this ? the human mind isn?t exactly great at processing the huge amounts of sensory information that is present in sports, much less make accurate judgements of that information (and over the course of thousands of events in a single season). That?s why we use data. No one is saying the data is ?perfect?, but you?ll get a much better picture of performance using it than merely ?watching the games? and being subject to the many cognitive biases that hinder the reasoning process.
?Now, if he could go 13-20 every game, then he would be. How many times does chandler get the ball on the block and asked to create his or someone?s else?s shot? How many times does he getting doubled??
To alot of fans of the game, we often perceive the guy who is scoring more points per game than another player to be the better player because he?s seems to be adding more to the team?s bottom line of total points (and, to some fans, he also seems to be ?working harder?). However, scoring is only one part of the game; scoring EFFCIENTLY is also important and is a key part of winning basketball teams (and it?s been proven in stat studies, see the usage-efficiency model by Dean Oliver and other basketball gurus). Chandler makes up for not being a raw scorer in the points department by maximizing his touches on offense. He isn?t just a little efficient with his touches; he?s incredibly efficient, and it?s worth the tradeoff for his lack of shot-creation.
Posted by The Realist #2 | February 16, 2012, 9:18 am Boyer, thanks for (finally) bringing some evidence to the argument, and I agree with you that Chandler?s not a dominant rebounder. However, I do think Chandler?s a better offensive player than Dwight. Yes, I do watch games, and just from watching games I would have thought Dwight was better too. I don?t think Chandler?s as talented as Dwight and no, he can?t manufacture his own shot as well as Dwight. Chandler he doesn?t hurt you in the ways Dwight does either (turnovers, missed free throws) and while Dwight?s a fairly efficient field goal maker, he can?t touch Chandler there either. Again, he?s at a level of efficiency unseen in NBA history which ramps his value WAY up.
It?s hard to notice things like that when we?re watching a game because we only earmark the spectacular plays, even though they?re worth the same as a simple layup or pick and roll. You don?t notice that Chandler just doesn?t miss shots. And because Chandler?s really put it together after 10 years of being a much lesser player, it?s particularly easy to miss his evolution.
I 100% stand by my assertion that Melo being on the All-Star team is a joke. He sucks this year. In terms of actually helping his team win, he?s one of the worst starters in the league this season. The list of players who deserve the spot more is not short-Ryan Anderson, Josh Smith and Anderson Varejao being obvious examples. The only thing Carmelo?s done successfully this year is take a lot of shots. I?d be interested to hear what you think he?s done well enough this year to make the All-Star roster. This article sums it up nicely:
I will not wade into a Kobe discussion, but I don?t think he helps your cause here, and I?ve made such an argument many times on this website.
As for Chandler as a top 10 player, yes, strictly in terms of production this season only, I (yes, ME) think Chandler has been. As of today, he?s one of two players in the top 10 in offensive and defensive win shares (Lebron James being the other) and is third overall, sandwiched between Love and Durant and ahead of other big name guys in the top 10 like Howard, Paul, and Aldridge despite playing for a team that spent the first third of the season trying to shoot itself in the foot. His offensive efficiency is so high when compared to every player in league history that every shot he takes adds immense value to his team, even if he doesn?t take many of them. I agree with you that he didn?t deserve to be an All-Star before. So what? He?s playing like one now.
Posted by Lochpster | February 16, 2012, 9:52 am I was actually thinking about the same thing that you and realist ?finally? brought up some evidence.
So what if Chandler looks great according advanced stats? What does that prove? All it proves is that he looks great according to some made-up stat. I talked about chandler?s weaknesses and strengths. Even for you, I find that very surprising that you think chandler is better than howard offensively. I guess if you think that, everything else is pointless to discuss, unfortunately.
It?s how you get your pts. The fact that he doesn?t get doubled, which advanced stats can?t help you with, you actually have to watch the game, which I?m not really sure how this is bias, as anyone can see this. And it?s funny how I?m bias, and you guys aren?t, isn?t it? Elite offensive players get doubled because if they aren?t, they will destroy you. This has been the case throughout the nba history. There?s really no reason to ever double non-elite players.
My kobe example is a perfect one. If you actually watch lakers? games, Kobe is often doubled on the 20-25ft. out early in the shot clock. This would be pointless to do against even an above average offensive threat or against suspect jump shooters. You rarely if ever see someone like Joe Johnson or Wade get doubled out on the wing, or doubled much at all. So, when this happens, Kobe usually passes out to Gasol, who then passes to a wide open teammate for an easy shot.
As for Gasol, many stat geeks still think he?s the best laker. I think Odom led the lakers in +/- at least year, and Kobe was a distant 4th in some advanced stats behind bynum/odom/pau for at least 1-2 years. I bring that up because, it is simply completely idiotic to think that Kobe wasn?t by far the best player on his team for many years, but yet many stats say otherwise.
Pau is a perfect example. Pau continually gets good looks and one-one coverage because Kobe draws so much attention, even when he doesn?t have the ball. Pau?s FG pct. and off. rebounding has greatly improved since coming to the lakers. Pau went from a solid player with 1 AS appearance and 0-12 in the playoffs with memphis to a 4x AS total, 2 rings, and a probable HOF for the main reason of playing alongside Kobe.
Odom is another good example. Odom?s FG pct. skyrocketed while playing with Kobe immediately, much like Pau, and now Odom is doing terrible. Sure, there might be other reasons why Odom is struggling, and is it just a coincidence? I think not, as most things aren?t. Ariza?s another good example. It?s not going to happen with every player, but there?s obviously some truth behind this.
You think Chandler is a great player, that?s fine. Unfortunately for both of you, not many people in the league, ?the real experts?, agree with you.
When I talk about 13-20, it?s not about how many pts., it?s about shooting a lot of shots and still managing a high pct. He has a good pct., but if everyone on the team all shot 4-6, then they would lose almost every game. This is hypothetical, because there?s no way it could happen. No team is going to score 80 pts. in the paint every game. Because unless everyone on the team shoots almost all paint shots, shooting 70% for every game isn?t going to happen. While Chandler isn?t bad offensively, it?s quite a stretch to call him great. He scores almost all his pts. off of his teammates creating for him or his teammates drawing doubles and him getting better opportunities for off. rebounds. I saw recently he got an off. rebound right at the rim, and could?ve went up to dunk it, but passed it out, and this happens regularly with him. You?d think an elite off. player would try to score in that situation, wouldn?t you?
Posted by boyer | February 16, 2012, 10:59 am Everyone?s biased. I?m biased, you?re biased, Realist is biased, fans are biased, coaches are biased, players are biased. Nobody?s saying you?re biased and we?re not, so please stop putting words in our mouths.
Gasol was a more efficient scorer than Kobe when he was the leading man in Memphis, drawing the double teams. He remains so today. It?s not because of Kobe.
Nobody?s ever scored as efficiently as Chandler is right now over the course of a season. And it?s not like Chandler can?t score more. He?s gone over 20 points 5 times this year. In those games he?s shot 75% from the floor and 78% from the line. Admittedly, a lot of those were on putbacks and opportunities created by teammates, but Chandler continues to deliver when his usage increases. He?s having a special season, no matter how much you want to deride his offensive limitations.
And lets not speak of Howard as if he?s without serious offensive warts. Despite working with Hakeem in the offseasons, it?s not as if the guy?s scoring effortlessly through double teams. Most of his scoring still comes off of dunks and putbacks, things created for him by teammates. And he leaves so many points at the free throw line, Hack-a-Howard?s a viable offensive strategy.
Ultimately, I?m aware that many won?t agree with me. In fact, I?m delighted by that fact. If you?re not interested in deviating from the norm and would rather stick lock-and-file with ?expert? opinion, that?s fine. Even then, there are a number of sports writers who consider Chandler an All-Star snub, so I?m not exactly out on a limb by myself here.
Posted by Lochpster | February 16, 2012, 12:15 pm Boyer, making statements such as ?all it proves is that he looks great according to some made-up stat? isn?t a counter-argument; it?s a display of ignorance. And the rest of your post about Gasol and Odom only reinforces that fact ? as if you need to explain to me the usage-efficiency model at work; I spent the past two posts talking about it! Of course a player?s efficiency goes down when he has to create more, much like Kobe?s does when he has to work harder on offense. No where in my posts did I deny that Chandler?s efficiency benefits from others creating good looks for him. What I am saying is that even for a player who doesn?t create his own shot often, he is performing well above the norm adjusted for his usage (that is, he?s as valuable as a player scoring 20 pts/gm with a lower shooting %). That?s an All-Star.
Posted by The Realist #2 | February 16, 2012, 1:22 pm And just a little example of what Chandler can give your team: while all of ESPN is busy telling you about the greatness of Jeremy Lin and his shot at the end of the game (who?s been an above-average player during this Knicks run), guess who secured the all-important offensive board before Lin?s shot? Chandler does those things all the time.
Realist #2, thanks for the read and the spirited support. I enjoyed reading your posts and agree with pretty much everything you?ve said, although I do think Jeremy Lin has been pretty spectacular in his own right during the past few games. Keep it up!
Reply to this comment Its funny to me how some fans always think players aren?t doing enough. Chandler means more to the team than stats. As the article states he?s shooting great and his usage is low. I?ve watched him the whole season and noticed not only does he block shots but he blocks a lot in the clutch. Against the Raptors he blocked a shot that would have buried the Knicks in the closing minutes. Although I do not agree with the salary he was given he does play hard and has shown leadership. I was reading a stat on ESPN today that said something about Knicks players are shooting 14% better off a Lin pass than a pass from another Knicks player. Chandlers picks help the Lin create and only a dummy would think because he doesn?t average 20 and 15 that he?s not elite.
Reply to this comment I have been getting so much hate from fans about Tyson Chandler being overrated because of his huge contract but I?ve always felt like his impact has been felt the most for the Knicks and this only validates my feelings, good article!
Anyways I only have one problem and that was completely ignoring, IMO, the best defensive rookie in the league in Iman Shumpert. I?m not even sure Mike Woodson deserves a lot of the credit because the man has the players switching every pick and roll which is never a good idea IMO. Anyways Shumpert is easily the best perimeter defender on the Knicks, has become one of the best on-ball defenders in the league and is FOURTH in the league in steals despite playing less minutes than anyone in the top ten but Tony Allen (THE best perimeter defender in the league).
The amazing game winner Lin had over the Raptors never would?ve happened if Shumpert did not switch onto Calderon who was absolutely killing Lin offensively yet he couldn?t do anything against Shumpert.
[...] Post a comment Yesterday, Chasing 23 contributor Lochpster wrote that Tyson Chandler was the backbone of the New York Knicks. If that?s the case, perhaps we can fill out the rest of the Knicks? body [...]