World HOt toPPIX

Atlanta Falcons running back Michael Turner has struggled in recent weeks. The Falcoholic has a diagnosis and a prescription.

The Falcons have leaned heavily on Michael Turner again in 2011. He's going to finish with 300 carries again this season, and his 1,129/4.1/9 slash line looks pretty good. While they've tried to transition to an offense built more around the passing game, the Falcons still clearly view Touchdown Vampire as a big part of what they do.

Yet Turner's showing some signs of fading down the stretch, a worrying trend given the importance of the last two games of the season for the Falcons. While he's always mixed in superb games with poor ones, Turner has averaged no more than 3.2 yards per carry the last four weeks running.

There's been a lot going on in the background here. Turner has been hurt, dealing with the same nagging groin injuries that have bitten into his production at times the last couple of seasons. The offensive line continues to struggle with blocking for stretches of the game, which limits his effectiveness. And at 29 years old, Burner is no spring chicken. Even if he'd kill me for saying so.

There's no obvious solution here. If the Falcons beat the Saints, they might be able to afford to rest Turner for the playoffs and roll with Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling. But if they don't win that game, Mike Smith and Mike Mularkey are unlikely to feel good about letting Turner take a nap on the bench in a must-win. It's also not like the offensive line is going to magically open up gigantic holes for the big guy on every run.

Hopefully the eleven day layoff will be good news for the entire team, including Turner. If they can possibly rest him against the Buccaneers, I say the team pulls the trigger and lets Rodgers and Big Snell do what they do.

Read More: Jason Snelling (RB - ATL), Michael Turner (RB - ATL), Jacquizz Rodgers (RB - ATL), Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, Dec 26, 2011 8:

"And this here's the TV. Two hours a day, either educational or football, so you don't ruin your appreciation of the finer things." - H.I.

by turnj35 on Dec 20, 2011 9:08 AM EST via mobile up reply actions At this point... (due to the 49ers beating the Steelers on MNF) the ONLY teams that can occupy the 4th seed at this point is any team from the NFC East that ends up taking that division. We can only occupy 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th or ?stay home? at this point because of how the records are and the remaining games plat out.

by Blood_Talon on Dec 20, 2011 10:37 AM EST up reply actions You're right... I should?ve said 5th seed. Basically if we beat Tampa we should get 5th & could possibly get the 3rd with help from Carolina. A big wish I know, but heck, it is Christmas?can?t a boy wish for a dirt bike, even though he?ll likely get a Huffy?

"And this here's the TV. Two hours a day, either educational or football, so you don't ruin your appreciation of the finer things." - H.I.

by jgentry425 on Dec 20, 2011 3:50 PM EST up reply actions We can't get the 4 seed The only way we win the division is to win the last 2, and NO loses the last 2. We?d be the 3 seed (because we already have a better record than any of the NFC East contenders. If we don?t win the division, the NFC East winner will get the 4 seed, and we?d be 5 or 6 depending on how the Wild Card teams shake out. Division winners get the top 4 seeds even if the Wild Card teams have better records. Remember NO (11-5) at SEA (7-9) last year?

But yeah, you?re right? there?s almost no scenario where they?re resting Turner. If we beat the Saints, we?ve gotta go all-out in Week 17 (and hope NO loses) to try to steal the division. If we lose to the Saints, we?ve gotta go all-out in Week 17 to make sure we don?t lose one of the Wild Card spots. I guess it?s possible that Seattle (vSF), Chicago ( @GB), Giants ( @NYJ), Arizona ( @CIN), and the Falcons all lose Week 16? meaning we?d be locked out of the division, but locked in to one of the WC spots.

I don?t think the team would rest Turner even if they had the chance, though. They?ve proven time after time they?re going to ride him until he drops. 2010 Week 17 (I think 1 seed was not technically locked up though) Turner still got 17 Carries (Snelling only got 8).

by aces666high on Dec 20, 2011 11:27 AM EST up reply actions We can't afford... to rest him unfortunately. With the passing game starting to show signs of life we need him more than ever. But I do think that with the more work Quizz has gotten the last couple of games that spelling him will help. I know Quizz was in quite a bit at the end of the last game due to blow out but I think we should see more of him (allot more).

by Blood_Talon on Dec 20, 2011 11:37 AM EST up reply actions Is there a situation where we could get the 2 seed? With the Niners winning on Monday, is there any way an 11-5 NFC South team could get the 2 seed?

by MentallyMIA on Dec 20, 2011 6:48 PM EST up reply actions Mike has some injuries but I think mainly its the o line that creates the biggest problem for Mike.They are what they are and we have to deal with it so he as in Mike does well at the beginning of the game and then the defense adjust and all of a sudden he gets stuffed fairly regularly.I think we need to learn to adjust a bit quicker than we do.I mean to me its obvious whats going on but the coaches seem to take a quarter to figure it out.Thats when The Snell comes in as well as Jaquizz.Start the pass to the quick flat and sweeps .The biggest thing also is to pick up the tempo and call the plays on the line.

by JT131 on Dec 20, 2011 9:17 AM EST via mobile reply actions Win the Division? Get a #3 seed? Holy Cow ? I want some of that Christmas Miracle right NOW.

As it stands now, a #3 seed would give us a rematch with the Lions, followed by a chance to take the 49?ers down a peg. Then we hold our collective breath to see who we play: Saints or GB.

But, you know what? I don?t really care. Our Defense is playing lights out recently ? and we will get Grimey and Hayden back. Our offense started to open the playbook a little bit against the Jags, and I have a sneaking suspicion that there are some things being saved for the playoffs.

Just get there, baby. If it is a 3 game or a 4 game season, all we have to do is win out. Doesn?t matter who we play ? let other teams worry about facing US.

by Mnemonic on Dec 20, 2011 10:49 AM EST reply actions Well... how much of his (low YDS/A) is due to bad OL play and the fact that Ovie is out? How much of this is due to MM insisting on running MT in predictable spots ALL year long (save for the last few games this has been shaken up a little but not enough for my taste)? And, finally, how much is ?actually? due to MT starting to wear down?

I personally don?t think the last of my questions is true because ALL the ?other? elements stacked against him (OL troubles, Ovie out and MM just generally sucking for the first 12 1/2 games), he is still putting up top 3 NFL RB numbers (mostly because he is getting allot of carries). He is a beast and I don?t think he 1) gets enough credit for his play and 2) is really not getting any help?on or off the field!!

I just think he is getting bagged on too much lately, not necessarily by you or this write up?I get where your coming from. And yes, it?s a combination of things and I would say ?most?

by Bigru3 on Dec 20, 2011 11:04 AM EST via mobile up reply actions Turner vs. MJD Sort of unfair since MJD is playing better than any RB in the NFL right now. But MJD goes up against defenses that don?t even bother defending the pass and still puts of huge numbers. There are games (like against Houston this year and last year against Pitt and Baltimore) where the Falcons don?t even bother running Turner b/c they know he has no shot at yardage.

Truthfully, Turner just hasn?t had burst since 2008 when the staff basically ran him ragged with 376 carries. Can you think of a single big run he?s made this year where there wasn?t a gaping hole created by the line and FB? And his running style is so heavily dependent on the line creating big holes for him, since he?s no longer capable of creating big plays by bouncing outside. Mularkey is old school, which is why he seems reluctant to see Quizz as anything more than a novel third down scat back.

I love what Turner?s given us for the last four years, but the trend line is heading down. We?re now ranked 18th in rushing to the Saints? 8th place. RB by committee might just be the more effective way to go.

by brotherbrown on Dec 20, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions The O-line and lack of creativity along with Turners years tallied... I think its the combination of the things stated above?the line is inconsistant but when they do open up holes we see Turners burst. I have seen MM call more stretch plays but they dont really seem to fit our personel or it just hasnt jelled yet also at this point in Turners career he lacks lateral agility?hes pretty much all north south anymore. Solution? Well unless there really is a fountain of youth we gotta keep selling the run to open up the pass game even if its 3 yards a pop it keeps def honest. Maybe its time to start working Quizz in a little more.

by Bigru3 on Dec 20, 2011 11:02 AM EST via mobile reply actions At this point cut or trade him. Not because of bad play but because this subject is so tiring. Each week MT get?s thrown under the bus for some reason or the other. ?He?s over the hill?, ?worn out?, ?no lateral agility?,?so forth and so on. ATL OL is ranked 28th in run blocking, 23rd in power ranking, 29th in stuffed, but 10th in open field, wonder who that is attributal to to? Maybe MT.

The comment about the past four weeks, one team was HST which has a great rush D. They were behind by more than three points against CAR and ATL NEVER runs if behind in the second half. JAX rush D DOVA is 9th in the league. When ATL plays good rush D?s MT never does well, whatever well means, because the OL sucks at run blocking and MM?s lack or drawing up decent run plays.

MT has been more successful this season running outside than between the tackles. Why? Because he is fast enough to get outside, the TE seal the end of the line and the OL sucks at run blocking.

On top of that, with MM?s past history on rushing offenses why is anyone surprised that the run game ins?t that effective? Does anyone actually believe putting a different RB into the current scheme is going to dramatically change anything?

by Dave Choate on Dec 20, 2011 11:30 AM EST up reply actions Great points mwalex The only thing that would be different if we put in Snelling or Quizz is that we?d have a legitimate receiving threat coming out of the backfield instead of a guy who looks like he?d catch leprosy if he caught the ball cleanly. But since we don?t throw the ball to our backs with any kind of regularity, they again just become two more guys trying to dodge DT?s that have easily swarmed past everybody. Until there?s a change at OC, it?s going to be business as usual w/out RB?s.

Btw, did anyone know that Sproles ranks 5th in the entire NFL in receptions w/79 and ranks 3rd in total YAC yards w/570. Nearly all his yards are after the catch(total is 659). Imagine what we could to w/our younger and just as agile version w/just HALF of that reception total? Imagine how much more room JJ and Roddy would have with teams worried about a 5?6" RB gouging them for almost a first down per touch? Imagine if we learned to throw screens that didn?t look like they were practiced during warmups? Keep imagining because it won?t happen w/the guy we have in control of our RB?s right now. Until the scheme(MM)goes, we are an old fashioned running team.

by JT131 on Dec 20, 2011 12:14 PM EST via mobile up reply actions and despite his size, he seems to have decent yards after first contact.

by Gemini-RU on Dec 20, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions Turner made two great catches against JAX he can catch, he just doesn?t have the opportunity to do so very often.

by aces666high on Dec 20, 2011 12:41 PM EST up reply actions rec'd every time I see teams throwing screen passes to their RBs I sigh. why can?t we try more?

I don?t buy that at all. I was watching the GB-KC game last Sunday. from what I remember Cassel of the Chiefs had been dismal at throwing screens. disregarding Palko as a QB we can than safely assume the Chiefs were not a team that ran many screens. now here comes that team with a new QB and simply kills that GB pass rush with screen plays. GB defense just couldn?t get to Orton and force any turnovers.

by Gemini-RU on Dec 20, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions I can't disagree on the receiving RB point and it is a good one. But, and I have to say but, ATL doesn?t use Snelling and Quizz in those situations now. Adding a different RB won?t change that, well, I don?t think it will anyway.

While the data set is small, Snelling and Quizz have higher catch rates than MT, which should surprise anyone. But MT has made some very good catches this season, especially in the flats where he is very dangerous when he catches the ball. MT should have between three and five passes a game going his way. If nothing more than to surprise the D and get coverage on him to loosen up the other receivers.

Snelling has shown what he can do after catching a pass but that hasn?t changed anything. Quizz can catch deep passes but that hasn?t changed anything. Oh well.

I still refuse to believe that we have an Oline that isn?t athletic enough to run a simple screen. I think it?s the fact that we don?t spend a lot of time practicing it, or at least that?s what it looks like come gameday. It?s not like the screen play is some off type play that?s only used in high school and college like the option. It?s a standard play! I?m sure our D could use some time against it too being that we can really embarrass ourselves against it.

by aces666high on Dec 20, 2011 1:41 PM EST up reply actions rec'd MT gets stuffed a lot, and in most cases you can tell he really had nowhere to go (or going a different way would be impossible with his size) ? DTs get good penetration and tackle him in the backfield, and he still manages to get to the LOS.

now, it?s both the line AND the OC who are responsible for that, and OC is the main culprit. every time we turn the predictability mode off run the no huddle offense and Matt get to call plays Turner gets decent yardage.

by Gemini-RU on Dec 20, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions Wait a sec ATL OL is ranked 28th in run blocking, 23rd in power ranking, 29th in stuffed, but 10th in open field, wonder who that is attributal to to? Maybe MT.

But shouldn?t the numbers form the run game and his own numbers then actually reflect that he is outperforming his O-line situation?

by J Tadpole on Dec 21, 2011 7:12 AM EST up reply actions For the record, I am not on the "Turner stinks" bandwagon I think we?re looking at a complex picture here. Turner has been battling injuries, but as Blood_Talon and mwalex have noted, the blocking is abysmal at times and Mularkey loves a good run up the middle as much as anybody. I don?t think any of this is Turner?s fault, it?s just the facts.

With Turner?s injury history and age, though, I would love to get him some rest for the playoffs, which I firmly believe the team is heading for. I just don?t see an easy way to do it.

by JT131 on Dec 20, 2011 12:20 PM EST via mobile reply actions The only thing I can think of is to solidify the offense line. If Hawley?s the RG and Svitek?s the LT then they?ll just have to roll with it, because offensive line continuity is important to the entire offense. Also,Turner has always been a North/South back and it would only help him and the team?s predictability if the other backs got involved more.

by maxxj3 on Dec 20, 2011 12:24 PM EST reply actions Over the hill He?s gotten incredibly slow, he?s just over the hill. Still can run some guys over and find holes but he is over the hill.

by davis48 on Dec 20, 2011 12:25 PM EST reply actions I think the combination of the line and injuries Plus, he?s always been the guy who has a steady but unimpressive game until he breaks one late. Jags game excluded, we haven?t really been in a position to force the run in the 4th quarter recently. I know he?s still getting his carries, but with Turner it?s more of a ?when? question with his carries, rather than a strict ?how many?.

I would love for him to get some rest in the next few weeks, but unless we have a playoff spot wrapped with no chance of the division, I can?t see him getting less than 18 carries the next two weeks.

by aces666high on Dec 20, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions It's the groin... but remember the Falcons have faced some good run defenses lately.

by brotherbrown on Dec 20, 2011 1:49 PM EST reply actions Heavy rushing load Throughout the season, He is the one to start up the play action play. But still getting significant carries. he combined 54 rushes in week 6 and 7. He is injured but he hasn?t done very much but running the ball out of the back field. The team has great depth at the RB position. With Ovie out and Snelling with a big body he is a dual threat. The team needs to turn to Jacquizz Rodgers. He is a change of pace back and can be deadly off screens the Falcons have only completed screen passes this year. We need Turner.

by mwalex on Dec 20, 2011 3:15 PM EST up reply actions I hadn't been keeping up with the numbers and didn?t realize that MT was third in the league in rushing. For three of the four years MT has been with ATL he has been one of the top RB?s in rushing and TD?s. The complaining about him is simply mind numbing at this point. MT has performed well in spite of:

People on this board should be saying ?Thanks God for MT and what would it take for him to play better??. Instead the ?grass is greener? syndrome kicks in and people put up a list of RB?s they prefer over MT.

Before people start grousing about yards per carry and MT?s DVOA keep in mind that neither of those stats depend solely on the performance of the RB. ALL are effected by the RB, play calling and design, line blocking and quality of defense.

by mwalex on Dec 20, 2011 5:35 PM EST reply actions 1 recs Third in league in rushing running basically the same play jeez we?ll complain about anything.

by FrozenFinger on Dec 20, 2011 8:41 PM EST reply actions a whole thread devoted to......... ??.what I?ve been saying all year???..I?m very honored Dave, thank you.

Michael Turner led the league in carries in 2008??..that year, he ran with with violence and passion. Since then however, he has not been the same player. He seems intent on preserving his body from wear and tear.

Where he got this idea in his head, I?m not sure ? it may actually be from the coaching staff, which would be especially frustrating. However, I tend to think he just wants to make sure he sees all the dollars from the contract he signed.

I truly feel like we?ve become a winning organization IN SPITE of this guy. I would not be shocked to see him gone in the off-season and replaced by a Matt Forte, or someone like that. You heard it hear first.

BTW ? I love the Falcons and the vast majority of the guys on the team . Turner and DeCoud are the only starters I have any issue with.

by KMarch on Dec 20, 2011 9:38 PM EST up reply actions We have won in spite of MT? I am amazed that a ?fan? would even make that post. So, I?m guessing that based on MM?s past history of his run offenses he has nothing to do with MT?s performance. Are you aware of his numbers at PIT when he was their OC? Go look at them and tell me if they look similar.

Also, I guess a really mediocre OL has nothing to do with it. The comment about a back worth his salt is unbelievable and laughable. ATL?s OL is 28th in run blocking and 29th in stuff rate. If you remove your personal bias do you honestly think that is a good OL? Do also actually think another RB would be appreciably better?

mwalex, what games are you watching? ??..the stuff rate is on Turner, almost exclusively????I really can?t believe we?re watching the same games??..do you realize he has led the league in negative yard carries the last 3 years????at what point do we put that on the RB? I see a less talented, but more motivated back in Jason Snelling continuously making something out of nothing behind this line.

The plays in which MT makes something out of nothing are few and far between. Don?t you watch him hesitate waiting endlessly for a hole like I do? Am I the only one seeing this?

I expect to be vindicated after the season, because truth be told, I think the Falcon?s coaches see what I see???..I don?t expect Turner to get 20+ touches per game consistently for this team past this season??.the coaches know, TD knows, when are the rest of us going to see it?

As far as Snelling goes, that?s a completely and utterly misguided argument. Snelling?s ypa in the last 3 years: 4.3, 3.7, and currently 2.9. Turner?s over the same time: 4.9, 4.1, 4.1.

mwalex, you can put up all the stats, numbers, clips, videos, and whatever type of hard evidence you want, but AuxHusky has his mind made up about this.

by AuxiliaryHusky on Dec 20, 2011 10:41 PM EST up reply actions To be fair Those 8 carries Quizz got were pretty much all tosses when the defense knew we were just going to run it, no RB in the league would have got more then 10 yards on those plays. That?s more on the situation then the o-line/runner. Also Snelling?s YPA?s are a bit deceptive because he get?s so few carries, it can be hard to keep it up when you get so few and have so few opportunities to bust a long run. Turner?s YPA would be much closer to Snellings without the few long runs he busted off earlier and Snelling?s best YPA games came when he actually got more then 7 or 8 carries(last year).

by Hutch11 on Dec 21, 2011 3:37 AM EST up reply actions I am watching the same games as you except without the personal bias. I have a filter for that on my television. I also agree that I cannot believe we are watching the same games, except for other reasons.

Why do you think MT has led the league in negative yardage? Do you sit there and actually believe that it is 100% his responsibility? Based on your posts that would seem to be the case. Do you pay attention to the play calling at all? ATL?s most consistent play is MT up the middle. That is so predictable and easy to defense and that is what happens more often than not. I also guess that is MT?s fault? When ATL is ahead in the 3rd Q it?s MT up the gut and has been for four years. That is a function of his size, MM and a crappy OL. If MT was a smaller RB that play would not be called as often.

I think it?s funny that you sing the praises of Snelling while he has not done anything to convince the coached otherwise. Your comment about Snelling making something out of nothing behind this line is so inaccurate it?s unbelieveable. Using DVOA, Snellings rushing DVOA is -31.5% and his DYAR is -32, which pale in comparion to MT. It might be due to his few carriers but it shows that your comment is not accurate. Again, what games are you watching? Snelling is also averaging 2.9 yards per carry. How is that continuously making something out of nothing? If it is due to his lack of carries then you cannot make accurately say that he is making something out of nothing.

I also think it?s funny how you also preach about your vindication and thinking that the coached see what you do. If that was the case the offensive schemes would have changed already. Good luck with that one.

I replied down below, but I'll reply to this too.... I will clarify ? MT is a better back than Snelling. There are times when I get so frustrated with MT that I wish they?d put someone else in, but I know we?re better (at least before 3rd down) when MT is in.

Making something out of nothing sometimes is getting 0 or -1 yards and delivering a blow to a DL or a LB instead of just letting yourself get pushed back.

And yes, when Snelling is in there, I see him delivering a blow even when he?s stuffed. That wears on a defense. I don?t think MT?s running style wears down a defense. He rarely delivers a blow to anyone but a DB ? and that?s when he has a head of steam.

You know as well as I do that you can?t change offensive schemes much with the same personnel???I expect the changes to come in the off season. If MT gets 20 + touches in 8 or more games next season, I will be shocked and I?ll crow right here on this board.

by AuxiliaryHusky on Dec 21, 2011 7:39 AM EST up reply actions Turner actually looked good against J'Ville.... ?.I thought he looked rejuninated and hit the holes harder than usual.

Yes, the stats bear out that he?s a durable back. He gets his yards and seems to actually play banged up with the groin injury and I appreciate that.

But, he?s just not a good feature back for this team. We need an RB that the defense must respect (on any down) as a runner OR a receiver. Turner?s one dimensionality makes us predictable and his constant negative carry tendency hurts us in a lot of drives. Why am I the only one who sees this?

Your stats are wonderful, they really are, but they don?t tell the whole story. This guy puts us in too many 3rd and longs ? that?s a fact.

It?s not a matter of you being the only one that sees anything. It?s a matter of how you refuse to consider that there are any other factors at play than MT alone. That is truly one dimensional.

well of course........ there are other factors. We don?t have great run blocking. Also, the fact that our number one RB is not a pass catching threat means that teams are able to key on the run easier when he?s in there. So sure there are plenty of other factors.

Can I ask ? when you watch Turner, in a play where the ?hole? isn?t readily apparent, do you see him plowing through and at least delivering a blow? Or does he get pushed back more times than not?

David Archer says almost daily on his radio show that MT does not run with the ?downhill violence? we should expect??..and that?s coming from an employee of the team who has to be careful about what he says about the players. I wonder what Arch would say if he could really say what he thinks about MT.

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