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Iowa Caucus Results. CNN entrance polls show Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in the top tier of candidates. No surprises. Entrance polls of those who arrived early: Paul and Romney lead with 24%, followed by ...
Entrance polls of those who arrived early: Paul and Romney lead with 24%, followed by Santorum at 18%, Gingrich at 13%, Perry at 11% and Bachmann at 7%.
One prediction I'll make: Entrance polls will seem way off from final results because caucus attendees can react to the data as it comes in on their phones.
Complete entrance polls -- early and late arrivals -- show Paul leading with 24%, Romney at 23%, Santorum at 23%, and Gingrich at 13%.
It's clear Romney seriously misplayed the expectations game. Anything less than a win and he'll be slaughtered by the media for the next week.
It's a common mistake: the Dutch flag is red, white and blue, while the French flag is blue, white and red. It's an important distinction.
I have no vote in what you decide who will be your president or the composition of the house of the senate, but bloody hell I have a real interest in that you get it right.
If it had been our decision -- most of us PW posters, that is -- you'd never have had to learn who G.W. Bush was, and the world would be much better off today. Sadly one person's ruling overrode every vote that was cast -- Katherine Harris.
Unfortenately, you are so correct. I offer my most humble apologies for the damage that my fellow countrymen (and women) fell upon the world. But please remember this, they were actually a minority within the country.
I suppose it all evens out over time. The world was not an optimistic place in the forties before America dropped in. We handled Europe's reconstruction better than Iraq's, no doubt and you're welcome. Currently, we're entertained somewhat with your over-leveraged banks and their willingness to accept an under-the-table loaner from Bernanke. And do keep those Nigel Farage videos coming while you're at it.
Romney should quit. He's been running for president for six years and he's going to finish with a smaller percentage than he got 4 years ago . . . against two guys who are completely unelectable--Santorum and Paul.
Okay, 1% in and Paul 43%, Perry 18%, Romney 14%, Santorum 14%. That's hysterical. It will change dramatically but it was worth it to see the opening numbers. Wouldn't it be funny if it didn't change much? Mittens' little robotic parts would need emergency oiling.
Its probably the most rural precinct in IA reporting..... ie somewhere that hates gummint subsidies except for the ones that keep their little hamlet from turing into a complete ghost town.
Willard seems doomed to a distant third...... looks like a very low turnout. As I figured would happen , the caucus being so close to Festivus season.
I'm afraid not but now he's only one point behind Paul and one ahead of Santorum. It is way early. It's only 4% in now and it's changed a lot already. I wish he would be a distant third because it would wipe that arrogant smirk off his face and his strategy would have failed. And flawed Newt is ahead of Perry right now.
I haven't seen projections of the turnout. If it is low, that's good for the Dems because this is an early predictor of GOP enthusiasm.
It doesn't look like it will go much more than 120,000 maybe less...... That means only the True believers showed up. That isn't good news for Willard. ...
(on being a very early predictor) especially if this ends up in a statistical three way tie...... It will show how fractured the Know-Nothings are. Randies, Evandies and Corporate shills........ Romney had to hope for one and only one loser, two of them complicates things. The longer this lingers the longer it takes for him to have to say something that will doom the General election because he was forced to say it to win the nomination.
27% of Polk County in and it represents 20% of the entire vote. At this point, 8:26, 18% in, Mittens is in close third. Very close.
Yeah, I've been posting every few minutes. You're responding to the first second it opened. Mittens has slightly more votes than the other two right now. It's going to change a lot more every few minutes now. I hope Mittens doesn't get more than 25% total.
I think it would be pitiful but he's going to get NH bigtime so he'll just make every effort to turn attention to that and I don't think that will be hard. Once this is over, attention will turn pretty quickly. I would be embarrassed, too, but I think his strategy has taken this possibility into account. I think if he came in a distant third, then that would be wounding for sure.
This is agonizing at this oint. It's been hanging there for the last 2% count to come in as Romney drones on and on. And 5 votes apart.
Good thing Romney's a robot. A human being would slink away in abject humiliation...can't crack 25% and beaten by Frothy Sweatervest.
Romney is congratulating Santorum right now for his victory, only five votes apart and 2 percent yet to be reported on count. But I got my wish, he didn't crack 25%. No love for Mittens. His family is standing behind him. It's spooky seeing carbon copies standing behind him.
I used to go to the MO caucuses when we had them. I always thought they were really neat events, and a good lesson in the nuts and bolts of politics.
Maybe not such a big laugh but how about Romney still not cracking 25% and at this moment, still behind Santorum, though only by five votes.
Taegan made a proven statement. He said entrance poll numbers will be delivered to caucus voters via instant updates and that can change voters minds.
Herd mentality. There are lots of terribly interesting studies of human behavior when influenced by the actions of other humans. Like one person in the room knows the fire drill is part of the test and so the other ten don't. And the bell keeps ringing and everyone knows they should leave the room but because the one has confidence and doesn't, nobody else does either, even when fake smoke starts being pumped in view outside the door.
My wife asked me what is all the hubbub about caucuses and I told her that I really don't know. You just pointed out something that I wish I should have told her. It is all about participation.
Because they're tedious and easily subject to manipulation. Especially the way the Republican's do them in Iowa. This is only Round 1 of the Iowa caucus, Round 2 is at the County level, and Round 3 is at the State level. Actual nomination delegates won't be given out until sometime in June.
Santorum-Bachmann... wouldn't that be the first ticket to lose the states of both the home states of the nominees of President and Vice-President since 1956 (McGovern-Shriver does not count because Agnew and Shriver were both from Maryland)?
But, but, but... she's good-looking !! (not in my opinion, but many people feel that way.) That's important to a lot of GOP voters, you know.
I think we have to assume that Bachmann, Perry, and Gingrich are pretty much done after tonight. Together that's somewhere around 30% of the Iowa electorate; most of whom will move to Santorum in the Southern primaries. This could easily become a two-man race by South Carolina.
Agreed but the press loves to follow Gingrich around because when he's on, he throws fire bombs in every open doorway. I just believe he's so mad at Romney right now that he can and will wound him severely before he has to get out or before they quit following him around to see what sensationally horrible thing he'll pull next, or stupid, or weird, or whatever. I want him to do some Romney damage before he leaves.
And that's okay, too, because I cannot in my wildest imagination see a President Santorum. But you know we all keep saying, this doesn't matter a hill of beans. It's psychological but Romney seems to be able to withstand a lot of grief because he is extraordinarily analytical and he has every eventuality planned in this thing. You just can't skip stuff, blow some states off at this stage. So he will endure this and NH will come quickly and he'll move on and so will public opinion. But I think it's an uphill battle all the way for him to get pzxg his extremely privileged life.
That's horribly, graphically funny! And I wonder how he figures her 5% tonight makes her desirable on any level, even out of his rectum.
How is Santorum losing Sac County to Romney... I mean if EVER there was a natural constituency for Santorum you would expect it to be those fine Sacites...
Ha ha ha ha ha! Paul, Santorum, and Gingrich are getting a combined 65% or more of the votes!!!! Sanity has left the building.....
Romney can divide and conquer now, but what happens when some of these doofuses drop out and evangelicals coalesce around a single anti-Romney? Is he hoping that Santorum just runs out of money?
I'm not sure money is going to matter in the primary... as weird as that is. The press is covering this like a blood sport. With Bachmann, Gingrich, and Perry out (effectively, if not actually) South Carolina could end up being a 55% win for Santorum which would have a huge impact on North Florida.
How would that have an impact on the state of North Florida? No but seriously... most of the people here in FL live from the Daytona-Orlando-Tampa line (I-4 corridor) southward, so even a Santorum victory in SC wouldn't do too much to the Florida GOP voting except to help coalesce the Romney and anti-Romney folks into two opposing camps. Romney is probably the favorite by far among South Florida republicans.
Agreed. South Florida and Central Florida are probably safe Romney territory, but we both know that the R/D/I distribution in Florida is heavily tilted to Lower Alabama. If South Carolina crowns Santorum, then Northern Florida will be heavily swayed. And lets not forget the hillbillies and bible thumpers in rural Central Florida, I mean Bithlo and Titusville.. need I say more.
Every time they pan the crowd at the caucus coverage on tv tonight, it struck me how generally old and white the people in attendance are. No surprise to me of course, but that's not very reflective of the American people as a whole. So in my opinion the whole process of one mid-western state being a bellweather for the early stage of a Presidential election is bogus.
Barry, I'm not so sure that it is. Obama won Iowa in 2008 by 10 points, 54-44%. Not to mention, would Paul, Romney, and Santorum be the top 3 candidates during first-in-nation voting if the caucus was held in some other state instead? I could envision other scenarios playing out in a handful of other typically-not-first-to-vote states if they were first instead of Iowa. Not that I'd like the results any better; I'm just not convinced that Iowa represents the best bellweather of Republican voters. If anything, other states have crazier and loonier GOP primary voters. ;-)
Iowa is not all that typical of the GOP in that it has historically been an isolationist state and it's economy depends on both farm subsidies and farm exports.
Every vote counts.?@politicalwire: We don't know the winner yet, but it will be the closest Iowa caucus result ever... http://t.co/cEVrCkpv?
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
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